Four years ago, things were looking as bad for the Saskatchewan Party as they have looked since it took power in 2007.
This requires a bit of perspective. This party is on an amazing historical run.
By the end of this term, the Sask. Party will have enjoyed the third longest streak of consecutive years in office in Saskatchewan’s history.
They have become Saskatchewan’s natural governing party. And not even a sizeable dip in popularity in 2017 seriously threatened that.
In 2017, the then leaderless NDP pulled somewhat close to the Sask. Party in the opinion polls — largely because it actually pulled ahead of the Sask. Party in cities like Regina. However, the Sask. Party’s substantial rural base would have likely meant another majority, had an election been called then.
What 2017 tells us, however, is that governments facing harsh circumstances are governments that are politically vulnerable. This is clearly the case in Alberta and Manitoba where Premiers Jason Kenney’s and Brian Pallister’s respective conservative-minded administrations could fall to the NDP.
What it doesn’t really explain is why Sask. Party Premier Scott Moe continues to do phenomenally well and not only compared with other conservative premiers on the Prairies. Arguably, Saskatchewan faces worse circumstances now than it did in 2017.
The province faced what was approaching a billion-dollar deficit and an economy slowed by a decline in oil prices. The political situation was made even more severe when then-premier Brad Wall — the most successful premier on election-day and the most popular premier since the invention of modern-day polling — announced he was stepping down. At that time, there was no obvious successor to the charismatic Wall.
Flash forward to 2021 and compare that political situation with the situation that Scott Moe now finds himself in.
Moe is still staring down a worldwide COVID-19 pandemic. Notwithstanding substantial progress in reducing case numbers, Saskatchewan still has more active cases per 100,000 people than any other jurisdiction outside the Yukon and Manitoba. And we have highest percentage of unvaccinated people in the country.
Moreover, Saskatchewan lost 6,500 jobs from May to June — a time of a year when the number of working people in this province usually skyrockets.
Reopening in July will certainly encourage job hiring, but the economy remains a big problem. Notwithstanding a recovery in oil prices, a drought should have us all worried about the economic problems that lie ahead.
After all, bad economic news quickly translates into bad budget news. Last year’s 2020-21 rivalled the 2016-17 budget when it came to the size of the deficit and this year’s 2021-22 deficit is nearly double last year’s deficit.
This has not been lost on the bond rating agencies.
Moody’s of New York has already lowered Saskatchewan’s credit score. DBRS Morningstar kept Saskatchewan at its current rating and even offered optimism that the Sask. Party government was "laying the groundwork for a strong recovery once the pandemic subsides."
Yet through all this, Moe remains among the most popular premiers in Canada.
It might partly have something to do with current NDP leader Ryan Meili’s struggles to connect with most Saskatchewan people. The contrast with Moe has clearly favoured the Sask. Party.
But the simply reality is, Moe is surviving the COVID-19 pandemic — the worse situation his government has faced — better than most.
