Even if you've had an unfortunate industrial accident and lost a finger or two, you can still count the number of sure things in sports on one hand.
The sure things? Muhammad Ali is the greatest of all time. No horse in its prime could ever have outraced Secretariat in 1973. Bobby Orr is the best hockey defenceman to ever lace up a pair of skates.
And oh, one more thing: Miami Heat are a lock this year to win their second straight National Basketball Association title.
The Heat and their Big Three (LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh) won their first title last year to validate LeBron's status as the game's most dominant player. Little has changed since then, and a 66-16 record this year did nothing to dissuade the experts that the Heat will be an unstoppable force during the playoffs this spring.
The NBA season in 2012-13 was supposed to be an LA Lakers-Heat showdown - West vs. East; LeBron and his boys against Kobe Bryant and his improved supporting cast. But the new additions to the Lakers (notably Steve Nash and Dwight Howard) stumbled most of the year before finally making a late rush to the seventh seed in the West playoffs. But then Bryant - the NBA's second banana as Ovechkin is to Crosby in the NHL - suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury in early April and the championship parade planners in Miami resumed their work.
Miami will have to dispatch of scoring leader Carmelo Anthony (28.7 ppg) and the New York Knicks to get through the Eastern playoffs, while 60-game winner Oklahoma City Thunder and superstar Kevin Durant (28.1) are the likely survivors from the Western Conference.
But basketball fans know that LeBron James - a supernova star in his prime, and with the experience from last year's title run on which to lean - should have no trouble once again accepting the NBA silverware from Commissioner David Stern in late June.
Just as you could with Ali, Secretariat and Orr, you can bank on it.
Michael Bamberger of sportsillustrated.com, on the Tiger Woods controversy at the Masters and whether he should have voluntarily withdrawn: "Golf is different. I love that about golf. We don't expect Kevin Durant to call travelling on himself or Clayton Kershaw to say, 'Oh no, that was ball four. Send that gentleman to first base!' "
Norman Chad of the Washington Post on Angel Cabrera losing in a playoff at the Masters to Adam Scott: "Argentina narrowly misses the spiritual-sporting double of 2013 - white smoke, green jacket."
R.J. Currie of sportsdeke.com: "The Daily Mail reports Tink, a hamster in England, recently came back to life after being given up for dead. They renamed it Alex Ovechkin."
Brad Dickson of the Omaha World-Herald: "After making a basket, a celebratory fist pump by the Chicago Bulls' Carlos Boozer hit the referee in the groin. Bob Knight and Rasheed Wallace immediately shouted, 'Why didn't we think of that?' "
R. J. Currie again: "Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Yovani Gallardo, 0-1 in three starts, was recently arrested for DUI with a blood-alcohol level almost three times the reasonable limit. Just like his ERA."
Comedy writer Alan Ray, on Yovani Gallardo's DUI arrest: "He's got terrific stuff: forkballs, fastballs, but mostly highballs."
Another one from Dickson, on the TV watcher who phoned in Tiger Woods's rules violation: "The viewer was not identified, but I'm pretty sure it's the same kid who used to tell the teacher she forgot to assign homework."
Bob Molinaro of the Norfolk Virginian-Pilot, surprised that Tim Tebow is still a New York Jet: "Apparently he's harder to give away than a used mattress."
Headline at ProFootballMock.com: 'Aaron Rodgers: Pay me like Tony Romo, or I'll start playing like him.'"
Comedy writer Alex Kaseberg: "The movie '42' is . . . a movie about Jackie Robinson, so it is about class, courage, grace and dignity. Or as it is also known: 'The Not Alex Rodriguez Story.' "
Janice Hough of leftcoastsportsbabe.com: "Derek Jeter apparently has a small crack in his surgically repaired left ankle and will be out at least until the All-Star break. At this point the Yankees may decide to seek a second opinion from an expert paleontologist."
Comedy writer Jim Barach: "Mike Tyson says he lost 140 pounds after becoming a vegan. Although his wife still gets very nervous every time he starts nibbling on her ear."
Ian Hamilton of the Regina Leader-Post: "The baseball movie '42' is No. 1 at the box office. For folks who may have been confused by that numerical title, here's a tip: The movie is not about the youngest player on the New York Yankees' roster."
