Carla Beck could have certainly found an easier job in politics than becoming the leader of the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party.
Including former premier Lorne Calvert, who didn’t step down as leader of the NDP until well after the party’s defeat in the 2007 provincial election, the NDP has now had five leaders since it was last in power in 2007.
The NDP was traditionally viewed as this province’s natural governing party. Even after the 2007 election, the expectation was that they would eventually return to power. After all, that was what happened in the past.
But since 2007, we’ve seen the Saskatchewan Party score three consecutive majority governments in convincing victories. In some ridings in the 2020 election, the NDP finished third, behind not only the Sask. Party but the Buffalo Party, which didn’t exist until a few months before the 2020 vote.
For many of the party’s faithful, who remember the heyday of Tommy Douglas, Allan Blakeney and Roy Romanow, they believe that their party should win the next provincial election, and that the leader they select is the next premier of Saskatchewan. Anything less is a failure.
This is the challenge facing Beck. She has the burden of high expectations, the same high expectations as predecessors Ryan Meili, Cam Broten and Dwain Lingenfelter. Even if the NDP were to win 20 seats in the next provincial election – a level the NDP hasn’t had since 2007 – many in the party would view it as a disappointment and hold Beck responsible.
The leadership race, which she won on June 26, was non-descript. You wonder how many people knew there was an NDP leadership race happening. Oh sure, they knew the NDP was looking for a leader. They knew the NDP was going to select a leader eventually.
But what percentage of the public knew that Beck was the favourite, that newcomer Kaitlyn Harvey was also in the race, or when the new leader would be announced?
It certainly didn’t generate the attention of previous leadership races, even the last one a few years ago, when Meili defeated Trent Wotherspoon.
To her credit, Beck has been working hard to boost her profile. One of her first stops as leader was in southeast Saskatchewan, as she met with ranchers and did a phone interview with the Mercury.
(It would have been nice for her to drop by our world-leading carbon capture and storage facility at the Boundary Dam Power Station, and to get a good look at the local oil sector, and to announce support for both, but we’ll start with a visit, and extend an invitation for her to come back and further her awareness about the impact and importance of coal-fired power generation and the oil industry).
She didn’t make Saskatoon or Regina her first stop. She came here, a constituency the NDP last won in 1995.
Rural Saskatchewan has not been kind to the NDP. Victories in rural ridings have been few and far between since the 1999 election. While the Sask. Party has had growing support in cities, the NDP has seen its support shrink in rural areas.
The rural support seemed to bottom out with Meili in charge.
Beck needs to find a balance on the urban-rural front before the 2024 provincial election. She needs to spend time in the cities, find a way to keep the 13 ridings that the NDP has, and add to what they have in Regina and Saskatoon, but the NDP also has to do more to show they understand issues facing rural communities.
Ask people in southeast Saskatchewan if they believe the NDP is in tune with local issues, and many of them will laugh at you.
And Beck has to pull this off with a caucus of a dozen MLAs.
The NDP’s membership, meanwhile, needs to be patient with Beck. They need to realize that barring something completely shocking and unforeseen, they aren’t going to win in 2024. The 2028 election needs to be their target. And they need to figure out how to win and retain ridings beyond Regina, Saskatoon and the north.
The sooner the NDP realizes it is not the province’s natural governing party, the better off it will be.
