For Prairie farmers the start of 2011 must truly be a case of deciding whether they want to look at the year ahead as a situation of the glass being full, or being empty.
On the positive side most indicators are suggesting 2011 will be a good year price wise for most crops.
As an example, Randy Strychar of Ag Commodity Research gave those attending the Prairie Oat Growers Association Conference in Yorkton late in 2010 a market outlook presentation which suggested this will be a good year for oats.
"There's lot of good news coming down the road for oat growers," he said at the event. "This will be a full blown bullish presentation."
Strychar said farmers can expect to find good prices moving forward, at least in the short term.
"You'll get a chance to price your oats higher moving forward," he said.
As an analyst Strychar said he has been telling clients to sit on their oats awaiting better prices.
"If cash flows allow it, you're going to get some opportunities," he said.
Greg Kostal with Kostal Ag Consulting in Winnipeg echoed an expectation of good prices in the canola sector when he spoke at the Grain Millers Harvest Showdown in Yorkton in November. He said then canola prices were strong, and likely to remain that way heading in 2011, depending on market factors ranging from weather to foreign government policy.
While not pinning a specific number on price expectations, Kostal asked "why can't we get to $600 (a tonne)?"
And this past week markets got a double boost upwards, following the general market rally for all commodities and then having that upward movement supported on the grains and oilseeds by the most recent USDA numbers.
The USDA report reduced U.S. and world ending stocks of corn and soybeans for the 2010-11 crop year with corn projected to fall to 127 million tonnes of ending stocks and soybeans to 58 million tonnes.
On Jan. 12, grain prices bounced upwards after bullish corn and soybean numbers in the most recent American reports.
March canola futures at Winnipeg's ICE Futures Canada exchange hit $13.50 per bushel, and in Minneapolis hard red spring wheat futures hit $8.77 per bu. and Chicago oats reached $3.94 per bu.
Corn and soybean March futures in Chicago ended at $6.08 per bu. and $14.15 respectively.
Coming a top a general worldwide market rally, the USDA report supported stronger prices, leaving producers having to feel more positive about the year ahead in terms of price.
But, here on the Prairies, there is a cloud hanging over things which have producers nervous.
A wet 2010, left land saturated heading into winter, and the amount of snow which has already fallen have farmers expecting a wet seeding season.
More snow over the next two-three months, a quick spring thaw, or early season rains could all make it difficult to seed many acres.
It will not matter what markets do if farmers cannot grow a crop to sell.
So farmers are facing some definite concerns. The clouds of moisture hang over the sector, but prices are at least a silver lining, if Mother Nature cooperates in the spring.
