How much of history is shaped by individuals, and how much simply happens? I believe that the war in Ukraine largely occurred due to the hubris and incompetence of two men: Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin.
Biden’s ego-driven decisions – specifically, reversing Donald Trump’s veto on Nordstream II and the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal – set the stage for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Biden’s actions signalled weakness and gave Putin the confidence to act. However, it was Putin’s overreach that turned a limited invasion into a full-blown disaster. Instead of focusing on the areas of Ukraine he already controlled, Putin made the fateful decision to attempt to take the entire country.
These were acts of hubris on both sides, and Ukrainians and Russians will pay the price for generations.
To understand Putin’s motivations, we must look briefly at Russian history. In the years following the Soviet Union’s collapse, there was hope that Russia could become a peaceful European partner. Some even thought Russia might one day join NATO. But those hopes soon faded. Whether due to the West’s failure to offer enough aid or respect or Russia’s internal issues, the opportunity to build a lasting partnership was lost.
When Putin returned to power in 2012, his attitude toward the West had hardened. He saw the American invasion of Iraq as hypocritical, and his ambition to restore the Russian empire took priority.
Russia’s vast geography, lacking natural defences like mountains or seas, has historically made it vulnerable to invasions. Control of regions like Ukraine, Crimea, and the Baltics has always been seen as vital to Russian security. This mindset, deeply ingrained in Russian history and amplified by the losses of the Second World War, shapes Putin’s worldview.
By 2014, after the annexation of Crimea, Putin had already decided that further action in Ukraine would be necessary. He accumulated a massive war chest, funded by fossil fuel sales to Europe, to weather the sanctions he knew would follow. His goal was likely to seize control of eastern Ukraine while keeping the western part destabilized, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO and ensuring Russia’s dominance.
It’s important to note that NATO expansion was not the real reason for the invasion. Putin simply does not accept Ukraine as a sovereign nation. His refusal to recognize Ukraine’s independence, not NATO’s actions, drove his decision.
Biden’s actions gave Putin the opportunity he was waiting for. By removing the block on the Nordstream II pipeline, Biden allowed Russia to bypass Ukraine in transporting natural gas to Europe, reducing Putin’s concerns about the economic fallout of an invasion. Then, the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan signalled to Putin that American leadership was weak and distracted. These missteps emboldened him to invade Ukraine.
However, Putin made a catastrophic error. Instead of focusing on eastern Ukraine, where he could have solidified his control, he decided to take Kyiv, believing he could quickly conquer the entire country. This overreach united the West against him, leading to severe sanctions and military support for Ukraine. The result has been a prolonged conflict that has devastated both countries.
Russia now faces a grim future. Its best and brightest are leaving, and its economy is being strained by the costs of war. Whether Russia will even survive in its current form is uncertain.
Ultimately, both Biden and Putin share responsibility for this ongoing tragedy. Biden’s decisions created the opportunity, but it was Putin’s hubris that turned the invasion into a disaster.
As history unfolds, we are left wondering how long this war will continue and what the lasting impact will be on both Russia and Ukraine.
Brian Giesbrecht, a retired judge, is a Senior Fellow at the .
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