When Danielle Smith was appointed premier of Alberta in 2022, the solid betting was that she might last only a few months at best. Alberta is, after all, the province that changes its premiers more frequently than some people change their underwear.
Stelmach, Redford, Hancock, Prentice, Kenney – there’s been quite a string of ill-fated conservative leaders since the iconic Ralph Klein stepped down in 2006. (Counting NDP premier Rachel Notley’s term from 2015 to 2019, Smith is the seventh premier in 18 years.)
After the shocking NDP victory in 2015, Jason Kenney was briefly hailed as the messiah who would lead conservatives out of the wilderness and back into power. He won the leadership of the rebranded United Conservative Party, which emerged from the merger of the Progressive Conservative Party and the Wildrose Party.
However, Kenney’s experience illustrated just how ruthless conservative politics in Alberta can be. Despite leading the UCP to a majority government in 2019, Kenney narrowly survived a leadership review in May 2022 with just 51.4 percent support. He subsequently decided to step down, paving the way for Smith.
The UCP is divided between the more moderate former Progressive Conservatives and the more radical, anti-establishment Wildrose faction. Smith has managed to solidify her support primarily by appealing to rural voters and positioning herself against federal policies, frequently blaming Ottawa for provincial issues.
Despite a very long list of alarming (and ) missteps, Smith remains secure in her job. While she is expected to face some criticism during the party’s leadership review in November, it is unlikely to be severe enough to threaten her role as leader.
Smith is particularly intriguing to me because I was her editor for several years at The Calgary Herald in the early 2000s when she was a young columnist. Hired to be a provocative voice on the right, she used her column to promote ideas we are now seeing brought to life in her premiership. Her distrust of the medical establishment, her small-government mantra, her anti-Ottawa sentiments, and – I would argue – her remarkable naivete were all evident even then.
On a personal level, I quite like Smith. She is engaging, has a sense of humour, and has a way of making you feel she genuinely cares about you and what is going on in your life. However, she often seems disconnected from the impact of the policies she advocates, particularly those that may put vulnerable communities at risk.
One conversation that stands out in my memory was about a 24-hour animal clinic that had recently opened in Calgary. It promised rapid service to anyone who brought their pet in. She asked me, “Why couldn’t we do something similar with healthcare for humans?”
I responded by saying, “So, you get instant care as long as you can pay for premium service? Is that how we want to run our healthcare system? What about those who can’t afford it?” Her hesitant response made it appear this perspective had never occurred to her.
That discussion took place two decades ago, and since then, Smith has had plenty of time to grow into the politician she is today. She went on to host a national talk show on Global TV, led the Wildrose Party, and seemed to end her political career by crossing the floor to join Jim Prentice’s Progressive Conservatives. However, she reinvented herself as a talk show host on Corus radio, a role she eventually left due to controversy over her content, such as advocating for ivermectin as a COVID-19 treatment. But against all odds, she resurrected her political career and defeated the NDP in the 2023 election.
Those who would count Smith out have been surprised more than once.
Despite her years of experience, Smith has not been free from occasional and significant lapses in judgment. A notable example is her phone call with Calgary street pastor Arthur Pawlowski. Alberta’s ethics commissioner determined that Smith, as premier, violated the Conflicts of Interest Act in her interactions with the minister of justice and attorney general regarding criminal charges Pawlowski faced related to the border blockade at Coutts, Alberta.
And recently, it was revealed she and other cabinet ministers attended multiple Edmonton Oilers playoff games in the spring, including in the luxury box of the company that imported the province’s ill-fated foreign shipment of children’s pain medication.
Although Smith claims she did not violate any ethics rules, observers may draw their own conclusions.
She also continues to advocate for policies that most Albertans oppose, such as replacing the Canada Pension Plan with an Alberta-only plan, creating an Alberta police force to replace the RCMP, and pushing the illogically named Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act, which aims to defy federal laws that the UCP believes are not in the interest of Albertans.
Smith now faces a new challenge that could once again put her leadership in question. Naheed Nenshi, the popular three-term mayor of Calgary, has come out of political retirement to lead the NDP, driven in part by his strong opposition to many of Smith’s policies. Nenshi has criticized the UCP government as “immoral” and “dangerous,” telling CBC that it is “a government that punches down on vulnerable people.”
While UCP insiders claim they are not concerned about the electoral threat Nenshi poses, the party has nonetheless launched a series of attack ads against him, focusing on his record during his time as mayor.
A poll released in July by Sovereign North Strategies and published in the Western Standard is also causing concern within the UCP. The poll found that the UCP holds only a narrow one-point lead over the NDP, with 47 percent support compared to the NDP’s 46 percent among decided voters. The poll also suggested that the NDP would win if an election were held tomorrow.
The poll also found that Nenshi holds a commanding lead over Smith in terms of leader favourability, with 49 percent of respondents favouring Nenshi compared to 37 percent for Smith. Smith was also given a 41 percent unfavourable rating, while Nenshi’s was 24 percent unfavourable.
Meanwhile, some on the right wing of the UCP are questioning whether Smith is going soft as she tries to hold onto her job. Western Standard columnist Cory Morgan recently wrote that Smith is allowing too many old PC stalwarts to creep back into roles of influence:
“The same old staffers, advisers and contractors are reappearing in the Danielle Smith government and they appear to be influencing it,” Morgan wrote. “Smith is musing about using the Heritage Savings and Trust Fund for corporate welfare and she inexplicably appointed disgraced former Premier Alison Redford to a board position in the Invest Alberta crown corporation.”
Smith has clearly made these moves to mollify the PC faction within the UCP. However, to maintain her support among the party’s more radical right-wing members, she now needs to focus on delivering on promised tax cuts, adding protections for anti-vaxxers, and amping up the anti-fed rhetoric.
The big question facing Albertans, however, is whether her U.S.-inspired politics of divisiveness has had its day. The answer will depend a great deal on whether her nemesis, Nenshi, can sustain the support of a new generation of voters.
Doug Firby is an award-winning editorial writer with over four decades of experience working for newspapers, magazines and online publications in Ontario and western Canada. Previously, he served as Editorial Page Editor at the Calgary Herald.
©
