SASKATOON—Despite U.S. President Trump’s reversal, three major players in the provincial economy expressed their readiness for the looming trade war with Canada’s southern neighbour. The U.S.'s 25 per cent tariffs on Canada were set to take effect on March 4, but Trump again hit the pause button on March 6 until April 2.
Canada, however, announced on Tuesday, March 4, that it is moving forward with a 25 per cent tariff on imported goods from the U.S. The uncertainty of trade relations between the neighbouring countries also caused Canadians to unite in support of locally owned businesses and products made in Canada. At the same time, liquor stores pulled Kentucky bourbon and Tennessee whiskey from their shelves, with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew signing an executive order against U.S.-made alcohol products in a manner similar to Trump’s photo-op announcements.
Retailer Saskatoon Co-operative Association, Nutrien, and the Saskatchewan Research Council – in separate statements sent to SaslToday – said they understand the impact of the tariffs on their respective industries, whether importing products to the U.S. or exporting the province’s goods and natural resources to Canada’s biggest trading partner in North America.
Co-op marketing and communications vice-president Tyler Dunn said the proposed tariffs may uniquely impact their multiple business lines as they continue to monitor the situation in the U.S. Co-op businesses include grocery and convenience stores, petroleum, food, agriculture, liquor, and hardware (home and building supplies).
“We're working collaboratively with Federated Co-op to assess potential impacts and exploring any alternative solutions, supply points and pricing and/or financial implications to ensure that we maintain the highest level of service and product offerings for our membership,” said Dunn.
Saskatoon Co-op is a Federated Co-operatives member that operates in the nearby cities of Martensville and Warman, as well as Colonsay, Dalmeny, Hepburn, Rosthern, Waldheim, and Watrous. The co-op employs over 1,000 people and has almost 110,000 members. The potential trade war has also positively impacted the co-op’s businesses, as residents rallied behind the Buy Local, Support Canadian campaign.
“At this point, as we continue to analyze the impact, our membership has shown tremendous support across all our divisions. Saskatoon Co-op takes great pride in investing in our communities, supporting Canadian producers and offering what we believe is an excellent selection of Saskatchewan and Canadian products. We appreciate the support of our customers, and we look forward to continuing to serve our local communities,” Dunn said.
He added that they continue to sell U.S.-made liquor from their current inventory, which they had already purchased through the Saskatchewan Liquor and Gaming Authority. However, they are also increasing their selection of quality Canadian alternatives.
Impact on U.S. agriculture and rare earth industries
Potash, which Nutrien produces, has been a vital part of U.S. agriculture. Nutrien CEO Ken Seltz said the issue of tariffs is their most significant discussion as they continue to study its possible implications once implemented. Nutrien is the world's largest potash producer and the second-largest nitrogen fertilizer producer.
“In a market that's kind of 10 to 11 million tonnes in any given year, we supply about 40 per cent of that market. And, of course, Canada supplies well over 80 per cent of the U.S. farmer's potash needs. So those are significant numbers. We've been having that discussion on both sides of the border with the governments in Ottawa [federal], Saskatchewan [provincial], and in Washington, D.C. [U.S.],” said Seltz.
He added that Canadian fertilizer is essential to the U.S. agriculture industry, reaching through the company's downstream network and onto farms in the 45 states it serves. The tariff will significantly impact farmers, as they will shoulder the cost of that 25 per cent tax, which they then pass on to consumers.
“If you look at the potash price today on the sort of global cost curve, while it's firming, certainly there wouldn't be many producers that could absorb a 25 per cent knock from a tariff. So, we continue to fill the channel right now. And you even see that reported in some of the trade press. We've moved as much volume south of the border in preparation for the spring planting season here in North America and the U.S.,” Seltz said.
“We want to serve our customers in the U.S. right through to the farmer and our wholesale customer network in the way we always have. This country [the U.S.] is critical to us. So, we're working with our customers to ensure we have as many products here as tariff-free for the spring planting season. So, if tariffs were imposed, it would ultimately hit the market and farmers after the spring planting season. But we'll have to watch that closely because affordability is always a big deal, and when our farmers are happy, we're happy.”
The Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC), a Crown corporation, said its facility has secured feedstock supply agreements from Â鶹ÊÓƵ America and Africa, as well as toll-processing contracts that will deliver rare earth metals commercially in Canada and Europe. The company is also monitoring the economic situation in the U.S.
“As a treasury board-funded Crown corporation of the Government of Saskatchewan, SRC will work with the government in its analysis and response to all announced and pending tariffs and counter-tariffs,” SRC said in a statement.
Once completed, SRC’s processing plant will be North America’s first fully integrated and commercial demonstration rare earth processing facility, with hydrometallurgy, separation and metal smelting stages. The metal smelting facility is expected to be fully operational in the second half of 2025. The rest of the facility, which includes monazite processing and separation of rare earths, will be commissioned and expected to be online throughout 2026.
SRC’s metal smelting facility produces rare earth metals neodymium and praseodymium commercially. Once at full capacity, the two metals produced from the facility will be enough to power half a million electric vehicles.
“This facility will stimulate the resource sector in Canada and North America, providing the early-stage supply chain needed to generate industry investment and growth. The end products from the facility will strategically support trade relationships as Saskatchewan will have the critical minerals and processing capabilities needed to support national security and global energy needs,” SRC said.
