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In 2016, Donald Trump successfully fused his angry frustrations with globalism with false allegations about . Eight years later, he is still doubling down on identity.

But this time around, his message seems worn and brittle. He lacks a silver bullet like or a border wall that he can leverage to make Democrats look weak.

The global scene

In India, Narendra Modi because he didn’t address the country’s deeper, long-term economic woes. Youth unemployment and out-of-control inequality are just two reasons voters have begun to lose patience with .

Latin American populists like Mexico’s former president Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) have had recent success with left populist messaging because they recognize the importance of economic well-being to political success.

For millions of Mexicans, AMLO’s policies compelled them to vote, and that practical incentive created a new political dynasty.

Claudia Sheinbaum, AMLO’s , broke barriers as Mexico’s first woman, Jewish president. But that wouldn’t have happened without her predecessor’s enormous popularity. And that popularity was based on his economic commitment to the poor and to increasing their spending power by raising the minimum wage each year.

Over the past six years, the number of Mexicans from 52 million to 47 million.

Endless culture wars

There is a good reason for conservative populists rev the engines of economic grievance and cultural insecurity. Popular movements run on emotion, and people in rich countries often get fired up about , like faith and values.

The constant boil of identity politics in Europe and North America has taught political scientists two things.

First, authoritarian populism is becoming so culturally extreme that it can hurt conservatives more than it helps by giving progressive voters a reason forcefully on election day, as they did on the second ballot in France in July.

What’s more, activating the of populist voters is harder when the right loses its grasp on issues that most matter to people and affect their economic well-being.

British election

The Conservatives in the United Kingdom suffered a following and the chaos of five Tory prime ministers over .

The Tories failed to act on the soaring cost of living and falling competitiveness, made even worse by COVID-19 inflation. Instead, they tried to .

Leading up to this summer’s election, — not enough to make xenophobia a winning policy platform.

In fact, political polarization in the U.K. has been driven in part . Sometimes populist messaging backfires.

Unsurprisingly, the Labour Party won a huge victory. Even so, Nigel Farage’s right-wing netted five seats in Parliament. As the third largest party in the legislature, Reform UK is supported by 15 per cent of the electorate, showing just how mainstream extremism has become.

But it also shows how populist pandering is fracturing post-Cold War conservatism and alienating the centre. If centre-right parties follow the , they will find themselves in a dead end where trying to incite voter rage overshadows everything else.

Turnout is everything

In the United States, Trump’s relentless slurs — aimed at everyone from to migrants and Joe Biden — are good for the far-right movement because it nurtures new extremists.

But it’s bad . His advisers keep urging him to make a real case to the American people about issues , but he seems incapable of abandoning his grievances.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s team, meantime, has made access to abortion — and it’s one in which millions of Americans can see the direct impact of public policy on their lives.

Trump has begun to cast about for a pivotal issue such as the rising cost of food to rally the faithful, too. But he’s also on hate speech and conspiracy.

It’s worked before, but it’s a riskier bet now. In 2016, he could blame the economic ills of middle America , but no more. Inflation is cooling. The U.S. Federal Reserve is soon, just weeks before the presidential election.

Populists are having an eventful year, defeated in both the U.K. and France while winning in , and .

Getting out the vote is always . If enough citizens who believe in the values of democracy show up to cast their ballots, near and far could sooner or later get clobbered.

, Professor Emeritus, Department of Politics, and , Professor of Political Science and Founding Director, International Studies Program,

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