Trade uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs both real and threatened has rattled consumer confidence, to the point that volume growth at the Port of Vancouver will suffer, says its chief executive.
Peter Xotta, CEO of the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority, forecast that cargo numbers will rise four to five per cent this year following a record-breaking 2024, but stressed "heightened uncertainty" is dampening the current economic mood.
"Make no mistake, tariffs like this hurt everybody," Xotta said in a phone interview Monday.
"That uncertainty then results in delays in decisions, whether it's investments or operating plans or other forms of investment in people and productive capacity."
U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 25 per cent duties on most Canadian imports last week, only to roll back those on items covered by the North American free trade pact until April 2.
A 25 per cent steel and aluminum tariff is still poised to take effect Wednesday.
Canada has hit back with retaliatory tariffs of 25 per cent on $30 billion worth of imported American goods, with a second round on other products worth $125 billion slated for next month.
The Bank of Canada and numerous economists have predicted that a drawn-out trade war would trigger a recession north of the border.
"We expect that it will impact overall GDP, and thus consumer confidence," Xotta said. "The damage has been done already."
In spite of the instability wrought by Trump's bumpy tariff rollout, Xotta said the coming year looks "fairly positive for Canada" — just less so than it would were a trade war not in full swing.
January and February saw the country "on a tear," Xotta said, as companies rushed to ship products and stock up their inventories ahead of tariff deadlines, which have shifted several times since Trump first levelled the threat in the days after his election victory in November.
The boost built on a productive year on the waterfront. The Port of Vancouver moved a record amount of goods through its gates in 2024, an increase fuelled largely by surging oil exports enabled by the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.
Total freight at the country’s biggest port grew five per cent year-over-year to reach 158 million tonnes in 2024, the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority said Monday.
Crude oil exports climbed 527 per cent thanks to the Trans Mountain expansion that began operations on May 1.
The project twinned the existing pipeline and nearly tripled its capacity at a total cost of $34 billion. The line extends from a storage terminal in Edmonton to the Rockies before winding southwest to a terminal in Burnaby, B.C.
"That has meant, especially in the context of the last few months, a significant planned increase in volume of energy shipments out of the port," Xotta said, with even more oil set to flow this year.
Container traffic recovered last year, rising 11 per cent from 2023 in a return to pre-pandemic levels. The boost came on the heels of a post-COVID dip, which in turn followed a spike driven by demand for consumer items at the height of the pandemic. Household goods and construction materials led the resurgence of products imported via steel box.
Several hurdles hampered port activity last year. Among them were extreme weather — wildfires and low temperatures halted freight trains at various points — and work stoppages at B.C. ports and both major railways.
"The reality is we've got more volatility in the supply chain," Xotta said.
Nonetheless, nearly 470,000 vehicle imports — another record — rolled onto the docks last year in a three per cent increase driven by Canadians’ appetite for new cars, the federal agency said.
Canola shipments increased 23 per cent, but wheat volumes — by far the biggest grain category — fell 10 per cent year-over-year.
Log exports dropped 38 per cent and mineral shipments 21 per cent. Coal exports dipped two per cent in 2024.
However, another type of traffic hit a new high-water mark. Cruise ship passenger volumes swelled to a record 1.33 million, jumping seven per cent from the 1.24-million cruisers who made landfall in Vancouver Harbour in 2023, most of them en route to or from Alaska.
Comparable numbers are expected this year, Xotta said, noting a majority of the sea travellers are American.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 10, 2025.
Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press
