REGINA - With the provincial election finally out of the way, today my focus has shifted to the US presidential race.
What this really amounts to is sort of an explainer to Canadians on how states have typically voted in US presidential elections, so you have a better idea of what to look for when you watch Election Night coverage on Tuesday night.
Really, there is so much talk about “red states” versus “blue states” by these commentators. This characterization of states as being red or blue was initially based on the colors used by the television networks on Election Night to show the states won by each presidential candidate — red for the Republican, blue for the Democrat.
But over time, these references have gone beyond simply describing how these states vote. Instead, these are almost cultural descriptions — descriptions of a state’s typical outlook on life in general. The red states are seen as the socially-conservative and deeply religious places that will impose the death penalty and outlaw abortion, but seek to protect your Second Amendment rights and your rights to religious liberty. The blue states are seen as the places that are more likely to legalize abortion and weed, more likely to support gun control and gay rights, more likely to oppose the death penalty, and not so much into religion.And so on.
But here’s the bizarre part about all this — there are supposedly “red” states and “blue” states that not only defy these stereotypes, but which split tickets in down-balloting. You can have a place that consistently elects Republicans for President, then turn around and vote for Democrats for Governor, the Senate and Congress!
Anyway, for those following Presidential races, here’s a broad look at which states are normally “red” or “blue” at election time, as well as the states that tend to be more in the middle — the “purple” states.
Also, I have learned this is considered important information for Canadians interested in “boycotting” travel plans to certain states based on what Presidential candidates they vote for — apparently this is a big deal for some people. Reminder, folks, that not all of the state might vote the same way as where you’re thinking of going.
Anyway, here is the broad list.
The northeast and mid-Atlantic:
This part of the USA is considered the deepest blue part of the USA, along with the West Coast. States like New York and Massachusetts have long reputations for being liberal states, so much so that when the Republicans tend to get elected there they’re usually moderates who are to the left of the rest of the party.
Vermont, land of Bernie Sanders, is perhaps even bluer than New York or Massachusetts. Other New England states like Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maine have moved into the “blue” column in past elections.
New Hampshire, though, is kind of an exception — it has a reputation for being more libertarian in terms of attitude, and it’s considered an important bellwether for this particular Election Night. I’d describe it as more of blue-leaning swing state.
New Jersey is also considered a solidly blue state at the Presidential level but it has a history of ticket-splitting — they’ve elected Republicans like Chris Christie governor there in recent times.
Moving to the mid-Atlantic, much deeper blue territory is Delaware (home of Joe Biden), and Maryland whose suburbs are home to many D.C. government workers. The District of Columbia itself is as blue as it gets - it even voted for Mondale and McGovern back in the day.
The south
Things start shifting to the “red” column once you head down into NASCAR country. Virginia is more of a swing state, but has stayed in the “blue” column in recent presidential elections thanks in large part, again, to all those D.C. government workers living in the suburbs in the northern part of the state.
To the west, West Virginia is interesting because for years it used to be as blue as the sky. But with the workers in the coal mines getting more worried about their jobs, in more recent election cycles it has become more and more reliably Republican red.
North Carolina is more conservative and more winnable for Republicans than Virginia is, but competitive enough for the Democrats to have a hope. In fact, Kamala Harris has held several events in this state this Presidential cycle. Part of the reason they are targeting North Carolina is because the Republican running for Governor, Mark Robinson, is apparently running a terrible campaign and trailing Democrat Josh Stein by double digits. So this is another one of these ticket-splitting states. I’d characterize it as a usually red-leaning swing state.
Then you get into the other mid-south and deep-Â鶹ÊÓƵ states and these all have reputations for being solid “red” these days: Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Â鶹ÊÓƵ Carolina. Even Arkansas, which used to vote for Bill Clinton back in the day, is now solidly red.
Florida and Georgia deserve special mention here. Florida used to be the classic “purple” swing state — their famous recounts handed the White House to George W. Bush in 2000, and the state swung to Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012. But after Republican Ron DeSantis was elected Governor in 2018 and after Florida emerged as the state that most resisted the COVID-19 lockdowns, this state has become deeply red at the highest levels.
Georgia, then, has become the “swing” state of the Deep Â鶹ÊÓƵ, having gone narrowly with the blue team in the previous Presidential as well as Senate elections — but they also currently have a Republican governor, and the Trump campaign is working to swing the state back in 2024. A big reason it is so close is because the city of Atlanta leans heavily Democratic and regularly keeps that party in the fight — far more than their neighbouring states.
The southwest
Rather than go up to the Rust Belt, I think I’m going to swing west and then head back there, because it’s more interesting.
So, very quickly: Texas, red state. Social conservative. Oil country. But perhaps not as red as it used to be — too many Democrats moving to take the many jobs in the state's booming economy. There's a lot of talk of "demographic changes" happening to make this state more competitive for Democrats in the future.
New Mexico has moved into “blue” territory in recent elections and seems solidly in that category now.
Arizona. Now this is interesting because this used to be the land of Republican mavericks like Barry Goldwater and John McCain. But in recent years it has definitely moved more into “purple” territory, narrowly voting for Biden in 2020. Again, a similar issue to Texas with lots of people moving to the state, including plenty of snowbird Canadians. (They don't vote here, obviously.)
Since we’ve done Arizona we might as well do Nevada, which is probably even more of a swing state and has gone blue in recent Presidential elections. A big reason the Democrats tend to do well here: the heavy union vote in Clark County (Las Vegas).
I should quickly mention that with the states right on the Mexican border, border issues have been a hot issue and also a divisive one, with both parties able to attract support for their positions because of it.
The west
This will be quick. California, now about as blue as the sky. Hard to believe this place used to produce Republican politicians like Nixon and Reagan. Same for Washington and Oregon, but there are eastern parts of each of these states that are Republican-leaning — and Oregon results tend to be close.
Hawaii is usually solidly “blue” while Alaska tends to be deep red — but interestingly Alaska seems to also produce a lot of maverick and independent-minded representatives there (Sarah Palin etc.). Not the typical Republican.
The mountain west
Interesting mix here, because a lot of the “red” states here tend to be “red” in a different way than, say, the Deep Â鶹ÊÓƵ. Basically, they seem less into the social conservatism and more into “freedom” values here.
Utah and Idaho, reliably deep red. Montana, same story but they have a reputation for ticket-splitting down the ballot.
Wyoming is also a bedrock red state, but you may have noticed the Cheneys aren’t big fans of Donald Trump.
Colorado used to be more of a swing state, but has swung “blue” in recent elections — this state was also the one that really pioneered the push for the legalization of marijuana, which says a lot about how the state votes.
The Great Plains and midwestern states
Moving to “flyover territory”, and Democrats are definitely flying over these states at the presidential level because they aren’t winning here. North Dakota, Â鶹ÊÓƵ Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri (which used to be a swing state but not anymore).
Iowa, normally the first-in-the-nation caucuses, is interesting because for several elections in a row it would go with the Democrat for President. Then the last couple of elections, they voted for Trump. Now we have a Des Moines Register poll that suggests the state might go for Harris, but a lot of people think the poll is an outlier.
Minnesota’s got a long reputation as being blue as the sky — it even voted for Mondale during the Reagan sweep of ‘84 — but in recent years it has actually been a close race there.
Illinois has been blue for a while. Indiana, red for even longer.
The rust belt and Great Lakes states
And now we come to the real kingmakers in American politics — the rust belt states, the land of the blue collar workers in the factories. But those factories have been under threat, which is why these places are far more competitive than they have been.
Ohio has a reputation for being a swing state, but last election it stuck with Trump even though the election went to Joe Biden. It looks like it might go Republican again.
Which means the Presidential election result is likely to be in the hands of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in that order. These three states delivered the White House to Obama in 2008 and 2012, thanks in large part to Obama bailing out the auto industry.
These three also delivered the White House to Trump in 2016, and then Biden in 2020. The polls suggest these three states are too close to call!
These are also states with significant urban-rural splits, with the Democrats racking up the vote in the major cities like Madison and Milwaukee, Detroit, and especially Philadelphia. So if the Republican is going to win at the Presidential level they usually have to rack up the vote in the rest of the state.
So the battleground states to keep an eye on in this election are definitely Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Add to that North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada -- states that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have both spent plenty of time visiting and staging rallies in.
That’s it -- all 50 states! That’s a look at the red, blue, and purple-coloured states of the United States of America. But we won’t know for sure what colour they all are until the votes are counted after polls close on Nov. 5.
