StatsCan's release of 2012 Canadian crime statistics last week put me in mind of some of my favourite quotes about statistics.
"I can prove anything by statistics except the truth," said former British prime minister George Canning.
Another British P.M., Benjamin Disraeli, is famous for saying, "There are three types of lies, lies, damned lies and statistics."
That one is often misattributed to Mark Twain, but the American satirist did have this to say: "Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable."
Then there is Vin Scully, the American sportscaster who said, "Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost, for support, not illumination."
Statistics are indeed frequently misused and often raise more questions than they answer.
Data itself comes with varying degrees of reliability, but as the above quotes suggest, it is the interpretation of the raw numbers wherein the danger lies.
City officials are traditionally suspicious of crime stats. When I worked in Smithers, BC, the town had the dubious distinction of having the highest crime rate in the province. Town officials, of course, did not like the moniker "Crime Capital of B.C." They argued that the detachment there was just better at reporting their incidents; that the crimes committed there were mostly petty stuff; that violent crime was almost entirely among people who knew each other; and that it was unfair to calculate the crime rate based on the population of the town alone because, as a regional hub, it served a population base at least three times that of the town.
Of course, any town can make those claims, but concerns that crime rate alone was not an accurate reflection of the relative safety of a place, prompted a change in the way StatsCan reports crime statistics.
The Crime Severity Index, adopted in 2006, attempts to make the numbers more meaningful by assigning weights to the various types of offences. These weights are multiplied by the number of incidents. The numbers are added up and divided by the population.
While this certainly has some advantages, it also has some problems of its own, particularly for smaller population centres. For example, in a city the size of Yorkton a single first-degree homicide could have a drastic impact on the violent crime index.
It begs the question of just how useful statistics actually are. On the macro scale, i.e., nationally and provincially, they do give us a very good idea of trends.
The latest report tells us several interesting stories.
Crime in Canada has been on the decline since the early 1990s and is at its lowest point since 1972.
Western Canada has generally higher crime rates and is more violent than the rest of the country. Rural areas tend to have more crime than urban areas.
Contrary to the overall trend, violent crime is actually up slightly.
The natural tendency, of course, is to make political hay with it. During the Liberal leadership race in the winter and spring, the candidates used the declining crime rate to criticize the Conservatives "tough on crime" agenda. The argument goes that the trend predates the current government by more than a decade and is the result of a focus in Canadian justice on rehabilitation and targeting root causes.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, could easily claim their policies have contributed to continuing the trend or even accelerating it.
But this is exactly why the people I quote at the beginning of this column have so maligned statistics.
Politics aside, is there anything practical we can do with the numbers?
In Yorkton, statistics led to a program that seems to be working. With the addition of a few officers, the RCMP, in conjunction with probation services are checking up on habitual offenders who are on conditional release. Since theft under $5,000 and mischief account for the largest chunk of crimes committed, keeping tabs on the most prolific perpetrators has a significant impact according to detachment commander Sgt. Rob Laurent.
Statistics may not be perfect, they may be subject to abuse, but they can be useful.
And, a declining crime rate, no matter how you look at it, is certainly good news.
