聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 Breathe deep. This is going to hurt a bit.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 It鈥檚 not something you want to hear from your doctor鈥� or your finance minister at a time when he鈥檚 just announced the $400 million provincial deficit has just leapt to $1 billion.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 We are all about to feel the pain.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 No, rural Saskatchewan, your name didn鈥檛 come up specifically.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 One even suspects that governance structure for things like rural municipalities will be maintained, notwithstanding that the Saskatchewan Party government has made it known that local school and health boards are clearly targets for reduction.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 It鈥檚 strange given that the province only has 28 school boards compared with 111 in 1992. By comparison, there are 296 rural municipalities, which is only three less than the 299 RMs we had in 1992.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 But by no stretch of the imagination does that mean that rural Saskatchewan will emerge unscathed.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Can the government continue to fund RMs or towns and smaller cities at the current level? Might we see a considerable shift in property taxes?
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Will rural school boards have to seriously look at the teaching complement? Will busing for rural kids continue?
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 And might we be in for another round of rural and smaller city hospital cuts?
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 All of these questions are now in play in the wake of current finance minister Kevin Doherty鈥檚 2016 to 2017 mid-year budget update that sees the deficit grow to $805.6 million from the $434.2 million predicted in June, which is聽up by $371.4 million.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Add a $235.5 million deficit at the Workers' Compensation Board (largely due to a $281-million rebate to businesses in June) and the total summary deficit becomes $1.0421 billion.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 That makes for a billion-dollar annual deficit the likes of which we haven鈥檛 seen since the Grant Devine Progressive Conservative government of the 1980s when billion-dollar annual deficits were the norm.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 And most of rural Saskatchewan remembers the pain that came after the 1992 and 1993 budgets when the Roy Romanow NDP government closed 52 rural hospitals.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Certainly, it would be tough for anyone not to remember those days, given that the Saskatchewan Party has spent the past nine years reminding voters about the rural school and hospital closings.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 The difference this time is that Premier Brad Wall and his Saskatchewan Party will not have the luxury of blaming past administrations for current problems.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 This is Wall鈥檚 and Doherty鈥檚 mess to fix over the next four years.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 And make no mistake that we are in a mess. Doherty announced last week he had to borrow $500 million just to pay for the operational costs (line department expenses for schools, hospitals, roads, salaries, etc.) in this year鈥檚 budget.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 That means $500 million directly added to the debt, right to the general revenue fund 鈥渃redit card鈥� debt that now soars to $4.6 billion from $4.1 billion.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Of course, it鈥檚 not all bad news.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Credit Doherty for already keeping departmental spending in line. And (except for potash prices), resource revenues like oil do seem to showing signs of recovery.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Sure, tax revenue was down $400 million from the budget largely due to sales and income tax revenue.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 But with a growing population paying taxes, tax revenue could easily recover in coming years.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 The bad news is the problem is in the here and now.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 "To start moving the province back to balance, significant restraint measures are needed," Doherty said.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 That includes a hiring freeze, tougher wage negotiation, and, yes, tax increases that the Saskatchewan Party said it wouldn鈥檛 impose.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Even taxes like the $121-million farm fuel tax exemption 鈥� one the provincial auditor has questioned 鈥� or the PST exemptions on fertilizer, seed, machinery repair, etc. could be on the table.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Breathe deep, rural Saskatchewan.
