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Is the Sask. boom coming to an end?

It may not yet be evident, based on the number of new trucks on your main streets or the new houses still being built.
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It may not yet be evident, based on the number of new trucks on your main streets or the new houses still being built.

But given what Premier Brad Wall had to say at the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association (SUMA) annual gathering last week, one has to wonder whether Saskatchewan's great boom is coming to an end.

In an indirect way, that's what our ever-optimistic premier seemed to be telling us by attempting to brace all of us for the reality that his Saskatchewan Party government will struggle to make ends meet in the upcoming spring budget.

Speaking to town and city mayors and councillors in Saskatoon, Wall said less revenue have an effect on the province's bottomline this year - largely due to an estimated $300-million drop in oil revenue caused by lower oil prices, discounts on crude oil and transportation issues stemming from the lack of pipelines.

The Saskatchewan Premier was quick to say that his warning shouldn't be seen in the same light as the dire warning Albertans heard from their Premier Alison Redford recently when she suggest her province could experience a $6-billion revenue shortfall.

Saskatchewan "is lucky to be a bit more diversified", Wall told the delegates.

But this will likely come as cold comfort by next month's budget when the reality hits that increased funding levels we've grown accustom to getting are no more.

Of course, we should have got the sense that this might be the case. The signs have been there for quite awhile now.

Last year's budget was the government's first stab at austerity. While the adjustments to the prescription drug program and the end to the film tax credit were comparatively minor, there is no doubt it was a belt-tightening budget. And that need for belt-tightening was later confirmed in the 2012-13 mid-year update in which revenues were down - not up as they generally have been at mid-year statement for the past eight years. Also, the budget saw a slowing in infrastructure spending - a hallmark of the Wall government that's been a big factor in driving the economy forward.

Similarly, the other recent news of rising education property taxes - contrary to what the Sask. Party ran on in 2007 - was another hint that tougher times were headed our way.

The third consideration is the simply fact that - while perhaps less dependent of heavy crude oil - Saskatchewan is every bit as dependent on resource revenue as Alberta.

That economic diversity to which Wall refers is largely the potash industry. A recent Canpotex sale to China was $400 a tonne - at least $70 a tonne below expectations.

Of course, the saving grace for the Saskatchewan economy has been new potash mine development that's helped fuel everything from the housing boom to higher retail sales to higher wages.

Coming on the heels of new horizontal drilling in the Bakken Play that drove land lease sales and increased drilling, Saskatchewan one-two economic punch had an unprecedented period of economic growth.

This takes us to the final clue that booms in over - the simply fact that booms in Saskatchewan don't normally last this long.

The boom took flight in about late 2004 in the last term of the Lorne Calvert NDP government. It peaked with record oil and potash revenue in 2008 that produced a billion-dollar surplus.

Nine years of boom is actually an unusually long time for this resource-based economy.

Of course, things can change quickly. One suspects that even if this boom is over, it won't be long before another comes along.

But Wall is telling us its time to brace ourselves for a different economic reality that the one to which we've growth accustom.

Murray Mandryk has been covering provincial politics for over 22 years.

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