聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 鈥淚鈥檓 tired.鈥�
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 That鈥檚 what I wrote in my notebook earlier this week, when struggling to figure out a topic for a column.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 In the previous weeks I鈥檝e engaged in countless debates online regarding pipelines, energy policy, and the sheer hypocrisy of those who decry the development and use of fossil fuels, yet use them every minute of their own daily lives.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Saskatchewan finance minister Kevin Doherty gave notice that the province must hold the line on the overall budget for public sector workers. There is no more money because we鈥檙e in a billion-dollar deficit position, pretty much entirely due to the decline in oil and potash revenue.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 The Trudeau government had announced a policy to close all coal-fired power generation in Canada by 2030. My house is roughly six miles away from each of two coal-fired power stations and two mines supporting them. From my yard, I can throw a rock in three different directions and hit homes owned by two miners and one power plant worker. I figured that day, our house might have dropped 20-30 per cent in value. Others I spoke to around town agreed with me.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 I spent an hour talking to an drilling rig owner who feels beat up by some of the oil companies who have demanded their vendors (like him) cut their prices so much that they simply can鈥檛 work at those rates. Nearly the entire fleet of independent Saskatchewan drillers is parked, yet larger, Alberta-based players have moved in to work for these rock-bottom rates. These businesses are starving, as are their people. A parked rig employs no one. An active rig feeds 21 families from the rig personnel alone, and it employs a similar number of support staff, if not more.聽
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 These oil companies, in turn, have been beaten up by OPEC, which two years ago this week opened up the taps and caused the greatest, and longest, oil downturn in living memory. I鈥檝e spent two years reporting on this downturn, scraping for any positive story I could find. They have been few and increasingly far between.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 But within minutes of that discussion with the driller, my dour mood was uplifted.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took to a podium in Ottawa and announced that the Enbridge Line 3 replacement through Saskatchewan was a go, as was Kinder Morgan鈥檚 Trans Mountain expansion from Edmonton to Burnaby. A few weeks earlier, Donald Trump was elected, and this past week I鈥檝e been reading there鈥檚 a good possibility he will approve the Keystone XL pipeline quickly, possibly as soon as his first day in office on January 20, 2017 (that pipeline long ago got Canadian approval from the previous Stephen Harper government).
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 A Liberal prime minister named Trudeau threw his weight behind two pipelines. I鈥檓 still picking my jaw off the floor from that. He killed a third, Northern Gateway, but that proposal had some serious flaws, especially tankers traversing the long, narrow and rocky Douglas Channel to Kitimat. If Enbridge had picked Prince Rupert as the terminus, maybe it would have been a different story.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Any way you look at it, three out of four pipeline proposals likely starting construction next year is huge. I haven鈥檛 seen a major export pipeline built since 2009, and my business is, quite literally, Pipeline News.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Saskatchewan reached some sort of equivalency agreement with the federal government on coal-fired power that makes it tenable if carbon capture and storage is used. If that鈥檚 the case, perhaps our house didn鈥檛 lose $100,000 in value after all. Maybe my neighbours will keep their jobs, too.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Perhaps most importantly, OPEC and Russia have thrown in the towel on this downturn.
聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 聽 They鈥檝e agreed to cut back production. Oil prices jumped 10 per cent in a day, and have continued a slow climb. In trying to drive everyone else broke, OPEC has largely hurt itself in the process, and now it needs the pain to stop.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 If oil prices come up a bit more, maybe it won鈥檛 be so hard to find those positive stories.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 Maybe, instead of layoffs, I鈥檒l be talking to people about hirings. Maybe, when my kids ask if we鈥檙e going on a holiday this year, I鈥檒l be able to say yes.
聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 I鈥檓 tired, but now have reason to feel a little invigorated again. There鈥檚 hope in the air, finally.
