This won't be the election that sees the federal Liberals make many inroads in Saskatchewan.
With the notable exception of former Liberal provincial leader and former federal finance minister Ralph Goodale, who has neatly carved out a nice niche in the largely urban Wascana seat, don't expect any Liberal to come much closer than a distance third in Saskatchewan's 14 ridings.
(However, it is intriguing that the Conservatives don't seem to be taking a serious run at Goodale, nominating little-known party loyalist Ian Shields as their candidate two days into the campaign.)
Moreover, don't even expect the poor showing of the Liberals in Saskatchewan to be of much help to the NDP, either. New Democrats will have to account for their stance on the gun registry and perhaps even a bit of fallout from the unpopularity of provincial NDP leader Dwain Lingenfelter.
The NDP's best hope is likely former Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations (FSIN) chief Lawrence Joseph in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill Rivers riding. However, this is only because of the unpredictability of this riding that has gone three different ways in the past five elections.
But even this riding also has a strong rural vote in the Meadow Lake area and north of Prince Albert that has carried ex-RCMP and successful Tory MP Rob Clarke in the past two elections. There's little to suggest that Joseph's name recognition - that might be a double-edge sword - will be enough.
Of course, the NDP are touting former National Farmers' Union President Nettie Wiebe as a possibility to knock of Conservative Kelly Block in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, largely because of the narrow 262-vote margin when the two first squared off in 2008. But Block - now running as a junior cabinet minister - would have to be in a better position than she was three years ago.
The NDP are also hopeful that young Regina lawyer Noah Evanchuk can knock off Ray Boughen in Palliser. What should be helpful to Evanchuk is a decreased Liberal presence compared with 2008 when former Regina police chief Cal Johnston did significant damage to NDP chances by splitting the Regina vote.
But with or without a strong Liberal presence, the dynamics of the Palliser riding that takes in Â鶹ÊÓƵwest Regina, Moose Jaw and the rural vote in between would still favours Boughen. Moose Jaw remains the biggest component of this riding and that is clearly helpful to Boughen as that city's former mayor. Similarly, staunch Conservative rural communities like Pense and Belle Plaine and south Regina will vote Conservative.
Certainly, much of the rest of the Regina including the Lakeview and especially Cathedral neighbourhoods offer a solid NDP base for Evanchuk, but there just doesn't seem to be enough votes there to offset the advantage Boughen enjoys.
Meanwhile other rural Conservatives like David Anderson (Cypress Hills-Grasslands), Gerry Ritz (Kindersley-Lloydminster), Gary Breitkruez, (Yorkton Melville), Ed Kormanicki (Souris-Moose Mountain), Lynn Yelich (Blackstrap) and Randy Hoback Prince Albert) should simply coast on their big pluralities from the last election. (At a mere 7,000-vote win, Hoback's was the closest of these rural races in 2008.)
The same can likely be said for Maurice Vellacott in Saskatoon Wanuskewin, Brad Trost in Saskatoon Humboldt and even Tom Lukiwski in Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre. Whatever misgivings city voters have with these city MPs seems to be offset by a solid base elsewhere in their ridings and the fact that the other parties aren't running particularly strong, name candidates against them.
The only other potentially close race is Regina-Qu'Appelle where Andrew Scheer now finds himself up against Regina city councillor Fred Clipsham. But the NDP's failure to get its vote out and the Conservatives' strength in the rural areas of this riding should carry Scheer.
Given all this, there's little reason to expect much change in Saskatchewan after the May 2 vote.
Murray Mandryk has been covering provincial politics for over 15 years.
